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  • Refugee_New
    04-05 11:25 PM
    I

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    this decade.

    Excellent analysis Jung.lee

    Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti

    I couldn't control my laughter. You have a good sense of humor too





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  • yagw
    08-20 02:53 AM
    Mr. X going to airport with his friend for the first time...

    Mr. X : What is that flight, taking off?
    Friend: Boeing 747

    The next day he went with his another friend and saw the same flight landing... then says to his friend....

    "I know the name of the flight... 'Vanding' 747!"


    Translation: Bo ~= Go
    Vandu ~= Come





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  • munnu77
    12-18 03:52 PM
    good article..
    but i always believed, if there is a war between these countries, India will be the loser as pakistan has nothing to lose right now..we will go 10-15 yrs behind compared to other developing countires..
    The war between 2 countries is that the terrorists really want, so they get a bigger grip on pakistan and they can recruit more people into them showing this..
    Europen countries doesnt have much of a problem if they want to attack pak..
    They will bomb and just go..India will have to deal with a destabilised country and people after tht..may be for decades


    y are people giving me red and pouring bad languages..
    I didnt or intend to insult any country or religion..I said only things tht I think are the facts..
    If someone feels the other way..I am sorry..





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  • gimme_GC2006
    04-13 02:58 PM
    ok..never mind..I called the officer and informed that I don't have any such information and since it was taken over by a different company, I am not in a position to get it..so Officer seemed satisified but asked few other related questions..and it is good for now..

    sigh..



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  • walking_dude
    09-28 08:01 PM
    Obama presidency will be a positive experience or a negative, based on whether Sen. Obama chooses to show Leadership or panders to the extreme left-wing of his party.

    Obama has everything to gain from supporting the EB community. An example is the loyal following Pres. Clinton has developed with the Asian community through the passage of recapture in the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act. Passing pro-EB immigration bills will definitely create a pro-Obama community as he gets ready to run for the second term. Though these new Permanent Residents may not be having the vote, they can contribute generously to the Obama campaign legally.

    Obama campaign won't be able to bank on 'Hope and Change' for the second term. Contributors will be judging him based on what he has done for their community. As he faces the Republican money-machine these contributions from the grateful former-EB immigrants will create a safe avenue for funding.

    Helping EB immigrants will not hurt Obama with the labor unions and left-wing groups. Whatever be their gripes, they will not be voting Republican or contributing Republican for sure. Same cannot be said of EB immigrant community who can by and large go Republican, if they see Obama working to the detriment of their interests and the community. With Asian votes and more importantly being so crucial in NY/NJ and CA, If I were Obama I would think hard before supporting anything that can turn these communities against me, and my party for a long time given the uncertainties of politics. If past trends have been any indication EB immigrant community has always voted solidly Democratic. Last thing any sensible leader or party will do in democracy will be losing thousands of future voters likely to vote for them and/or their party.

    Obama can either create a lasting Legacy with this community.Or he can make them angry for life by pandering to the extreme left-wing of his party, who won't even remember the action come the next elections. I hope Obama makes a sensible choice for the greater good. But if the current Democratic party politics is any indication, I am skeptical. It is beyond my understanding why the Democratic party leadership is hell-bent on converting the pro-Democrat EB immigrant community into future reliable Republican voters, by consistently black-balling any bills that could help the community!

    Passing anti-EB immigrant measure will NOT help the Dems get any new votes that they already don't have. Dems may lose a few votes for short term -which I highly doubt - by passing Recapture and other pro-EB bills. But that loss will be more than offset by new grateful voters who will vote Democratic for a generation and may be more. I can only hope that common sense prevails, and Obama acts keeping the common interests of his party and EB immigrants in mind while acting on the issue, while getting ready to pack-up for Canada or India, if forced to do so by Sen. Durbins pet policies.





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  • krishnam70
    12-29 12:53 PM
    It has no relevance in an immigration related forum
    kris



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  • xyzgc
    12-24 02:19 PM
    Ghazni's best-kept secret - The Indian Express
    S.C. Sharma ()
    April 25, 1998

    Title: Ghazni's best-kept secret
    Author: S.C. Sharma
    Publication: The Indian Express
    Date: April 25, 1998

    Provocative Ghauri was the title of an editorial that appeared
    on this page earlier this month. Pakistan has named its missiles
    Ghauri and Ghaznavi with the specific intention of taunting
    India. These worthies' claims to fame and glorification, in the
    perception of the Pakistanis, lies in the fact that they were
    credited with plundering and devastating north-western India time
    and time again in the eleventh and twelfth centuries.

    In their enthusiasm to score brownie points, the Pakistanis have
    got mixed up on chronology, they have produced Ghauri before
    Ghaznavi. Also, they have perversely sought to commemorate these
    Afghan rulers of Turkish descent in utter disregard of the fact
    that most of the territories they plundered are their own - the
    North West Frontier Province, the Punjab and Sind. The men and
    women they tortured, enslaved, ravished and put to the sword were
    their own forebears.

    If Pakistanis wish to revel in the inglorious misdeeds of
    foreigners perpetrated on their own soil and on their own
    ancestors, they are welcome to twirl their moustaches in euphoria
    and say: " Where ignorance is bliss, it is folly to he wise."

    Indians may look forward to future generations of Pakistani IRBMs
    and similar sophisticated weaponry named after the likes of
    Changez Khan, Nadir Shah and Ahmad Shah Abdali. Alexander the
    Great and Harshavardhan also have strong claims, but they might
    be disqualified for obvious reasons.

    In the course of his many abortive forays into India, Mohammad
    Ghori is said to have been captured once by the forces of Delhi.
    But Prithviraj Chauhan, king of Delhi, magnanimously let him off.
    Legend has it - and it is widely believed in India - that when
    Ghori eventually succeeded in defeating Prithviraj Chauhan at the
    Second Battle of Tarain in 1192, he blinded him and took him in
    chains to Afghanistan along with his friend, the poet
    Chandravardai.

    Ghori held a grand durbar to celebrate his victory. His prize
    catch, the king of Delhi, blind and a prisoner, was paraded and
    publicly humiliated. Deeply incensed by the treatment meted out
    to his monarch, Chandravardai took refuge to a subterfuge. He
    announced that though completely blind, Prithviraj could still
    hit a target guided solely by sound, and he asked for permission
    for this feat to be performed.

    Prithviraj Chauhan was handed a bow and arrow, and Chandravardai
    sang a now-famous verse which told him of the elevation and
    distance to Ghori's throne. And thus, guided solely by sound,
    Prithviraj shot his arrow through Ghori.

    The legend may not be entirely true, but it would be absolutely
    accurate to say that even after eight centuries have elapsed,
    Prithviraj is regularly subjected to indignity in the land where
    he was taken as a captive. I have seen it at first hand.

    Many years ago, while travelling by jeep from Kandahar to Kabul,
    I had to make a night halt en route at Ghazni. At the hotel, I
    learned that there was a grand mausoleum over the tomb of Sultan
    Mahmud Ghaznavi near the town, and I determined to see it. A few
    extra Afghanis (the local currency) helped my driver to
    comprehend the necessity of making a small detour the next
    morning.

    The mausoleum was indeed grand -judging by local standards - with
    a high, arched doorway like the Buland Darwaza. lie tomb proper
    was in a cellar about four or five feet be low ground-level. It
    intrigued me considerably to note that there were no steps
    leading down into the tomb. Instead, a metal chain hung from the
    ceiling of the cellar. I was told that I would have to hold the
    chain and jump down.

    I asked for the reason for this peculiar method of entry. The
    caretaker was evasive at first. But after much persuasion, he
    disclosed that there was another tomb at the exact spot where you
    jumped down. There, the infidel king of Delhi, Prithviraj
    Chauhan, lay buried.

    ================================================== =====================
    Might I add, that the very Islam these Pakis seem to be proud of, was forced down upon them.
    Most of these are descendents of forced converts to Islam!





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  • gjoe
    07-14 06:56 AM
    The traditional way to solve the I485 retrogression is to find a way to slow down or completely stop PERM and I140 for a decade. I am sure DOS, USCIS and DOL should be working together on this for a few years. Last time they did this was when they introduced PERM and premium processing for I140.
    To all my brothers and sisters who are waiting for their GC since years, please do not forget that there is a silver lining to every dark cloud. Only time can reveal what that silver lining is.
    Most of us know how problems are resolved these days by shifiting it from one area to another until some day everything breaks or things get resolved by itself. None of the agency mentioned above thinks or works any different. So be patient and beleive that there a silver lining to all this. Peace, joy, pain, sorrow and happiness are all passing things in life.



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  • pitha
    10-06 01:57 PM
    Fareed Zakaria has a program called GPS on CNN. Last week he went to singapore and interviewed a security\economic analyst from india, singapore and China. The analyst said something which was 100% acurate and something very semilar to what is happenning on this forum, He said India in its heart wants Obama to win but thinking with its head (logically) they want Mccain to win. He said Obama would be a disaster to India. He went on to read a laundry list of things in which Obama would be bad for India and one of the things that he cited would be bad for India under Obama was EB immigration for Indians and Chinese. Even analysts from India, China and singapore recognize what a disaster Obama would be for Eb immigrants and we here are still hoping for a obama win. Anyway, You and I (EB imigrants) hoping will not make any difference but atleast wake up to the impending disaster in the form of Obama\Durbin and start planning for it.

    I think Barrack Obama is really interested in strengthning its ties with India. I think he will definitely do something to help legal immigrants waiting in queue as one aspect of strengthning ties with India.

    Source: http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/oct/03ndeal.htm





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  • engineer
    01-03 12:31 AM
    Writer, Shuja Nawaz
    http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about


    Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
    December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
    Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan�s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
    The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government�s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India�s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a �limited war�.
    For Pakistan, there is no concept of �limited war�. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian�s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the �poison pill� defence of its nuclear weapons.
    The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
    The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country�s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan�s attack on seven major Indian cities:
    NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
    Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
    Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that �could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.� More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
    An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
    This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)



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  • santb1975
    10-01 01:30 AM
    I am

    After the bail-out bill failed in the House, Obama immediately posted a response reassuring Americans and investors that the leaders will come up with another soon.

    Contrast this with McCains partisan blaming of Obama for failure of bailout, while it was him that pulled the stunt of rushing to Washington to 'rescue' the bailout. After failing to show the leadership of his own party -with majority of Repubs voting against the bailout (a clear indication of leadership failure and ineffectiveness of McCain Presidency in passing anything through his own party!), he found it convenient to Obama.

    And it was Obama who proposed raising FDIC insurance to $250,000 to which McCain has (thankfully) chimed in.





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  • pitha
    10-03 03:55 PM
    To all those people who want Obama to win and are "hoping" that he would do something good for EB folks, I have one question

    Can anyone show one positive deed or statement by Obama regarding EB problems. Note legal immigartns does not mean EB it only means family based according to Obama,Durbin, Kennedy and the democratic clan.

    I am asking this question because I am puzzled at the number of people who want Obama to win in the face his and Durbins hostility towars us. So I am thinking maybe there is a something postive obama did for US (Eb) which I might have missed, so to educate myself can somebody please tell me what Obama did for us.


    The choice between Obama and Mccain is not good and better but between worse and worst, or lesser of the two evils. Mccain might not do anything for us but he might not do anything bad either, with Obama\Dirbin CIR there is only bad and nothing good for EB. I have an open mind can somebody please tell me something good obama said regarding solving EB problems. Everybody knows the venom spewed by Durbin on EB so no need to discuss that part.



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  • r2i2009
    05-04 01:10 PM
    House...forget it......


    It will never reach those highs again...

    In US..RE is done.

    Not 485...look at the number of foreclosures.....and inflation.....

    untill the war is over...forget...





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  • nojoke
    04-14 03:18 PM
    I cannot agree more. I have been trying to drill this into some peoples brain but they are so adamant on renting and has made this thread into a rent vs buy argument. I finally gave up. I am not saying that this is the right time to buy. Fast forward 2 or 2+ years, lets assume the market is good. Then when it comes to rent vs buy I advocate buying a house.

    Let�s say you have a small kid and you are living in an apartment, after 10 years you save enough money to buy a big house and you then eventually you buy it. Then you ask the your kid �do you like the house?�. He will reply �it�s very nice dad, but can you give you give my childhood now?.�. Go figure out guys. If you are not planning on going back for a very long time then at-least get a life in the country you reside and when the housing market is good.

    Where do you get the idea that the child will loose the life in apartments and then get back after buying a house?:confused: It would be nice if we can buy the house on the day one when we join the job. Or even nicer if our parents got us a house in US before we came here:D. Unfortunately there are circumstances that prevent us buying a house. The biggest one is this bubble and the madness of multiple bidding that insanely pushed the real estate prices, all the while the realtors and mortgage brokers where making 300K or 500K yearly income selling shoe boxes for half a million and generating slogans like "you will be priced out forever", "they are not manufacturing any more land", "housing is always a good investment", "renting is throwing away money".



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  • desi3933
    08-05 10:53 AM
    Why should they?

    So, you don't believe in helping others.





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  • rsdang
    08-11 04:53 PM
    :DH E A D A C H E S

    Joe was moderately successful in his career, but as he got older he was increasingly hampered by incredible headaches. When his personal hygiene and love life started to suffer, he sought medical help.

    After being referred from one specialist to another, he finally came across a doctor who solved the problem.

    "The good news is I can cure your headaches... The bad news is that it will require castration. You have a very rare condition which causes your testicles to press up against the base of your spine. The pressure creates one hell of a headache. The only way to relieve the pressure is to remove the testicles."

    Joe was shocked and depressed. He wondered if he has anything to live for. He couldn't concentrate long enough to answer, but decided he had no choice but to go under the knife.

    When he left the hospital, his mind was clear, but he felt like he was missing an important part of himself. As he walked down the street, he realized that he felt like a different person. He could make a new beginning and live a new life. He walked past a men's clothing store and thought, "That's what I need:
    a new suit." He entered the shop and told the salesman, "I'd like a new suit."

    The salesman eyed him briefly and said, "Let's see... size 44 long." Joe laughed, "That's right, how did you know?" "It's my job." Joe tried on the suit. It fit perfectly.

    As Joe admired himself in the mirror, the salesman asked, "How about a new shirt?" Joe thought for a moment and then said, "Sure..." The salesman eyed Joe and said, "Let's see... 34 sleeve and... 16 and a half neck" Joe was surprised, "That's right, how did you know?" "It's my job."

    Joe tried on the shirt, and it fit perfectly. As Joe adjusted the collar in the mirror, the salesman asked, "How about new shoes?" Joe was on a roll and said, "Sure ..." The salesman eyed Joe's feet and said, "Let's see... 9-1/2...
    E." Joe was astonished, "That's right, how did you know?" "It's my job."

    Joe tried on the shoes and they fit perfectly. Joe walked comfortably around the shop and the salesman asked, "How about a new hat?" Without hesitating, Joe said, "Sure..." The salesman eyed Joe's head and said, "Let's see...
    7-5/8." Joe was incredulous, "That's right, how did you know?" "It's my job."

    The hat fit perfectly. Joe was feeling great, when the salesman asked, "How about some new underwear?" Joe thought for a second and said, "Sure..." The salesman stepped back, eyed Joe's waist and said, "Let's see... size 36."

    Joe laughed, "No, I've worn size 34 since I was 18 years old."

    The salesman shook his head, "You can't wear a size 34. It would press your testicles up against the base of your spine and give you one hell of a headache."



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  • mbawa2574
    03-25 11:12 PM
    Ok, so everytime I see a rent vs buy discussion I see apartment living compared with living in a house. This may not apply to a lot of other places but here's how it goes in SF Bay Area:

    Rental
    Apartment: Decent sized 2 Bed/2 Bath --- $1600 pm
    House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $2000 pm

    Mortgage:
    House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $3500 pm

    So, is additional 1500 pm worth the money? Why not rent a house? What's the point of trying to get into a sliding market when even Greenspan can't say where the bottom is?

    I am in a decent sized apartment right now and if I have to upgrade its a rental house. Buying in a sliding real estate market doesn't make sense to me.
    Dude you are missing on the tax savings part of the game. U need to take it into account. Specially if you are making 100k + . Buying a house will save you big on taxes for first couple of years since interest is tax deductible. For couple of years interest is the major part of your payment.

    Also people suggesting that this is not a great time to buy, then what would be ?There are bargains in the market. A Good investor never buys a property when prices touch the roof. U wanna buy right on the bottom. Also risk factors depends on markets and geography where u are looking. NY metro,CA (San Fran & LA), New England area are the best places to buy as job markets are diversified and markets have potential to sustain ups and downs. Property prices have tanked just 10 points and have already corrected pretty much in good neighborhoods and there is inventory sitting on the market with great deals . U cannot compare apples with oranges. Hence Detroit,Ohio etc have no comparison to these progressive markets I mentioned earlier. Also governments don't cut new lots at the same rate in these states as compared to other US markets keeping the prices more or less stable.

    On NJ- I have not seen a single Native born American liking the state. It is considered most corrupt state in the union but still pretty much rich people live in NJ including our friend Lou Dobbs :-) He curses NJ almost once in a month on his show and lives in a 300 acre farm house in the same state. So I will rather ignore the comments posted about NJ in earlier post.





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  • Rayyan
    01-07 10:44 AM
    For all the people on this forum rather on this topic, who think that they are human , professionals, broad-minded ,highly educated .
    I just have on word for all you
    PATHETIC!!!!!!!!!!
    Now before you all start hammering me :cool:, I don't belong to any religion, I am a HUMAN BEing unlike you all (inculding new_refugee):mad:





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  • validIV
    06-05 11:43 AM
    Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.

    When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.

    30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.





    ItIsNotFunny
    12-17 03:11 PM
    Looks like his initial intentions were not bad but discussion went on wrong direction.

    Shanti! Shanti!

    Marphad,

    In the recent past, I have expressed my views about the same subject on this forum. I was very angry with what happened in Mumbai. The desire to fix the wrong has not gone away, but now that I look back, I regret some of the things I said at that time. My comments did not do any good and some of the coments offend few others on this forum. Those who felt offended by my comments are just as entitled to these forums as I am. I am not trying to be politically correct, just trying to say that it doesn't serves any purpose to dicsuss this issue on IV fourms.

    Branding all people from a specific faith doesn't help in anyways. For too long men have fought because of religion and each such time was avoidable.

    I do have a suggestion. To get some perspective, I suggest you watch the bollywood movie "New York", although I am not a big fan of bollywood movies.

    Peace.


    .





    munnu77
    08-07 04:37 PM
    Two little boys, ages 8 and 10, are extremely mischievous. They are always getting into trouble and their parents know all about it. If any mischief occurs in their town, the two boys are probably involved.

    The boys' mother heard that a preacher in town had been successful in disciplining children, so she asked if he would speak with her boys. The preacher agreed, but he asked to see them individually.

    So the mother sent the 8 year old first, in the
    morning, with the older boy to see the preacher in the afternoon.

    The preacher, a huge man with a booming voice, sat the younger boy down and asked him sternly, "Do you know where God is, son?"

    The boy's mouth dropped open, but he made no response, sitting there wide-eyed with his mouth hanging open.

    So the preacher repeated the question in an even sterner tone, "Where is God?!"

    Again, the boy made no attempt to answer. The preacher raised his voice even more and shook his finger in the boy's face and bellowed,

    "Where is God?!"

    The boy screamed and bolted from the room, ran directly home and dove into his closet, slamming the door behind him.

    When his older brother found him in the closet, he asked, "What happened?"

    The younger brother, gasping for breath, replied, "We are in BIG trouble this time.

    .........................

    ("I just LOVE reading next line again and again")

    ...............................

    ...............................

    .........................

    ..................

    ..............

    .....

    ..

    ..

    ..
    .
    GOD is missing, and they think we did it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



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